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X-WR-CALNAME:Mathematics Colloquium seminar series
X-WR-TIMEZONE:Eastern Time (US & Canada)
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20261016T022519Z
UID:tag:localist.com\,2008:EventInstance_47223136749321
DTSTART:20240823T183000Z
DTEND:20240823T193000Z
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Dr. Alexandria Volkening\, Perdue University\n\nTitle:
  “Forecasting U.S. elections with a compartmental Republican-Undecided-D
 emocratic model”\n\nAbstract: Election dynamics are a rich complex syste
 m\, and forecasting U.S. elections is a high-stakes problem with many sour
 ces of subjectivity and uncertainty. In this talk\, we take a dynamical-sy
 stems perspective on election forecasting\, with the goal of helping to sh
 ed light on the forecast process and raising questions for future work. By
  adapting a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model to account for interact
 ions between voters in different states\, we show how to combine a compart
 mental approach with polling data to produce forecasts of senatorial\, gub
 ernatorial\, and presidential elections at the state level. Our results fo
 r the last two decades of U.S. elections are largely in agreement with tho
 se of popular analysts. We use our modeling framework to determine how wei
 ghting polling data by polling organization affects our forecasts\, and we
  explore how our forecast accuracy changes in time in the months leading u
 p to each election.\n\n \n\nThe KSU Mathematics Colloquium is a seminar se
 ries that brings in researchers from other universities to present results
  on all areas of Mathematics. The talks are targeted at general audiences 
 of students and professors.\n\n \n\nThis seminar will be held in person an
 d virtually.\n\nDetails\nStream Link\nPasscode: vv1hTB
GEO:33.935805;-84.519573
LOCATION:Mathematics Building\, D-224
SUMMARY:Mathematics Colloquium seminar series
URL;VALUE=URI:https://calendar.kennesaw.edu/event/mathematics-colloquium-se
 minar-series-082324
CATEGORIES:Lectures & Guest Speakers
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